So out of the blue I had a request to give my thoughts on the upcoming elections in the UK. I'm going to have a bash, but having no TV to watch and only bothering to buy a paper if I need some reasonably hefty waste paper I was a little out of the loop and had to catch up by doing some reading first. So, here are my thoughts and apologies for the delay. :)
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First thing is first - no one concerned seems to really want it. If this wasn't obvious by now then Gordon Browns unconscious mugging him last week should have tipped the wink. Forgot the microphone was on?
Not hardly. Unconscious minds don't forget much, if anything.
Ideally for the political class they will engineer some sort of hung parliament if they possibly can - a coalition government of the sort that always crops up whenever the system as a whole is threatened. If one can be elected, that's a lot better than one having to be forged after the first round of immensely severe state cut backs and brick chucking. Sharing the blame for the economic collapse they are facing now that lies have failed, taxes aren't being collected and inflation has stopped having a positive effect on GDP willl be fine, just fine.
Underneath all this of course are the now broken systems that the state has been using for the last three decades to fund itself - inflation, FRB banking, income taxation, regulation and bubbles to cream off excess in a bust, taxation at source and that sort of thing. There will be a big push to reinstate those and/or to get the old ones running again by whoever winds up winning. Won't work, of course - you can't fool the same guy the same way twice.
Without those things, the state has to be much smaller. Which is a bugger for most people as the state is about to withdraw from the areas it's been into which don't directly and immediately benefit the top statists and their cronies. Schools, hospitals etc etc won't have the controlling hand removed - but they will have funds cut. This is the worst of all worlds under a statists system. Not able to sort matters out for yourself due to the law still being able to be applied, not favoured enough to be given largesse from the statists.
Anyway, that's the backdrop to polling day. And it's very interesting that it simply isn't being mentioned in any way whatsoever. Which suggests that yes, it really IS so bad that they have to pull together on it. In more "normal" times one side would have tried to make political capital out of it at the others expense given how easy the case is to make, the absence of such efforts tells it's own story.
State failure is still on course - the state is going to have to cut down to it's core functions. Not because it wants to, but because all the mechanisms that pay for it's intruding everywhere are shot at. Between here and there is a horrible period where the noose tightens but before the rope breaks.
The problem they have electioneering this massive sea change is that the current raft of MP's have all been trained in the fine art of giving goodies away without having to reference how it will be paid for. It has been decades since any politician has had to do something as onerous as even look at the books honestly, nevermind balance them. Not knowing what else to do, they are all treading water and waiting for events. The electorate are equally keen on seeing the state as powerful to the point of being supernatural - for psychological reasons which Stefan Molyneaux has excellently outlined at freedomainradio.
With no real change to sell and no credible salesmen for austerity this weeks election is a wash out. More interesting will be the next one, the emergency one after the bricks start flying.
For a prediction - small tory majority or hung parliament (and the IMF.)
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A small update on my thoughts on the NWO thing - it's now my firm opinion that the database state and all the rest of it are an answer to the collapse, not the reason for it. I think that the internet and the shortening of the information gap it heralds have made life a lot harder for the "elite" than they are used to. Logic is always available and genius is found in all social strata - information is he key distinction between, and that distinction is shrinking every day.
Monday, 3 May 2010
Sunday, 18 January 2009
State Failure
This is a response to a comment about state failure.
First of all - what does that mean in practical terms?
Surely the government can't stop existing completely, that's a crazy idea??!
I have no expectations of a full on wiping out of the state for all time, what I see coming down the pike for most of the western world is a dramatic reduction is the size and scope of the states powers and place in society. Ironically, this will also come when the power and reach of the state seems to increase beyond all measure overtly.
At some point soon in the UK/US/eurozone either people will go to withdraw their money from the bank at the end of the month and it won't be there, or they will succeed and it will be worthless due to inflation. This basically means that state workers (and everyone else) are not going to get paid.
The tertiary functions of the state - roads, police protection (i.e. the stuff they do to provide excuses for taxing everyone) hospitals, schools, welfare, benefits......this kind of stuff is going to have it's funding curtailed, stopped altogether or stolen by insiders.
And so those services will break down. But not as badly as one might think because it is the case that a lot of well meaning and indeed hardworking people are in those sectors. In extremis some nurses, teachers, policemen, doctors etc will roll in to work for free.
But not for long and not without a lot of shouting. The good news is that people actually want those things, so there will always be a market for them and always be a way of acquiring at least some measure of them.
The governments of the west are enormous and powered as much by inflation as by taxation. With the inflation mechanism effectively broken the government will have to cut back on what it does.
First order - looting for those who run the upper tier of the state. That's what this game is all about. Once the people "at the top" can't extract lots of wealth without a lot of risk, they'll bugger off overseas or retire or whatnot.
Second order - protecting the top tier and forcing the population. This is the troops on the street, the policemen who do what the top statists tell them, the army, the muscle of the state.
These will be the priority for the statists to keep going. As the inflation mechanism falters, expect them to try and get in resources in other ways - more taxes, more fines, more licences, more control, direct seizures of property with no recourse - everything they usually get up to, but on steroids.
Traditionally this has meant.....a really large land grabbing war but nuclear weapons have made such a war a pointless activity, there is no point in stealing several thousand square miles of radioactive crap while having to live in a bunker yourself forevermore.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failed_state#Indicators_of_State_Vulnerability
First of all - what does that mean in practical terms?
Surely the government can't stop existing completely, that's a crazy idea??!
I have no expectations of a full on wiping out of the state for all time, what I see coming down the pike for most of the western world is a dramatic reduction is the size and scope of the states powers and place in society. Ironically, this will also come when the power and reach of the state seems to increase beyond all measure overtly.
At some point soon in the UK/US/eurozone either people will go to withdraw their money from the bank at the end of the month and it won't be there, or they will succeed and it will be worthless due to inflation. This basically means that state workers (and everyone else) are not going to get paid.
The tertiary functions of the state - roads, police protection (i.e. the stuff they do to provide excuses for taxing everyone) hospitals, schools, welfare, benefits......this kind of stuff is going to have it's funding curtailed, stopped altogether or stolen by insiders.
And so those services will break down. But not as badly as one might think because it is the case that a lot of well meaning and indeed hardworking people are in those sectors. In extremis some nurses, teachers, policemen, doctors etc will roll in to work for free.
But not for long and not without a lot of shouting. The good news is that people actually want those things, so there will always be a market for them and always be a way of acquiring at least some measure of them.
The governments of the west are enormous and powered as much by inflation as by taxation. With the inflation mechanism effectively broken the government will have to cut back on what it does.
First order - looting for those who run the upper tier of the state. That's what this game is all about. Once the people "at the top" can't extract lots of wealth without a lot of risk, they'll bugger off overseas or retire or whatnot.
Second order - protecting the top tier and forcing the population. This is the troops on the street, the policemen who do what the top statists tell them, the army, the muscle of the state.
These will be the priority for the statists to keep going. As the inflation mechanism falters, expect them to try and get in resources in other ways - more taxes, more fines, more licences, more control, direct seizures of property with no recourse - everything they usually get up to, but on steroids.
Traditionally this has meant.....a really large land grabbing war but nuclear weapons have made such a war a pointless activity, there is no point in stealing several thousand square miles of radioactive crap while having to live in a bunker yourself forevermore.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failed_state#Indicators_of_State_Vulnerability
Economic Indicators
6. Sharp and/or severe economic decline: measured by a progressive economic decline of the society as a whole (using: per capita income, GNP, debt, child mortality rates, poverty levels, business failures.) A sudden drop in commodity prices, trade revenue, foreign investment or debt payments. Collapse or devaluation of the national currency and a growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling, and capital flight. Failure of the state to pay salaries of government employees and armed forces or to meet other financial obligations to its citizens, such as pension payments.[10]
7. Criminalization and/or delegitimisation of the state: endemic corruption or profiteering by ruling elites and resistance to transparency, accountability and political representation. Includes any widespread loss of popular confidence in state institutions and processes.[11]
8. Progressive deterioration of public services: a disappearance of basic state functions that serve the people, including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and violence and to provide essential services, such as health, education, sanitation, public transportation. Also using the state apparatus for agencies that serve the ruling elites, such as the security forces, presidential staff, central bank, diplomatic service, customs and collection agencies.
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The question I have been asked is "Do you think that state failure has been planned."
And my honest answer to that is I do not think so, but on my more tinfoil days I might be inclined to. I certainly think that the fallout has been planned for - witness the Uk's now prime minister Brown selling all the states gold to his banker chums when it was at it's lowest price in decades...
The problem that even the statists have is that using the state is a lot like riding a tiger, it might get you where you wanted to go but it's dangerous to get off once you arrive. Once a state is started, it's hard to stop the inevitable growth, levelling off and collapse.
Wednesday, 7 January 2009
Right, Where Were We?
Oh yes....
Trade exchanges, IIRC. Which I do.
A very simple idea - barter, but with bookkeeping is what it boils down to. Pretty much anyone with a PC (and power, might be an issue going forward for some of us) can create one. If you don't have a PC you can use paper and pen...old skool I know but due to make a come back.
Add to this credit notation for excess and there is a highly viable mechanism for trading between people. John can swap 1 sheep for Daves 1 cow and get a credit of 2 legs of lamb (or something similar) to be repaid later by Dave. These two legs of lamb would then be a credit note which culd be swapped inside the exchange with anyone who thought Dave was good for it - with the usual financial incentives attached - maybe buying a credit note for two legs of lamb in the future would cost 1 and a half legs of lamb right now to the right person, or maybe more if the future for sheep doesn't look all that rosy.
The only important things are -
1) You need something to trade - your time, expertise, goods, whatnot
2) Reliable people to run the admin.
Point 2 is probably what stops trade exhanges from being the totality of trading in the world, to be honest. (Aside from hired goons and the paper moneymen.) Beyond a certain point the risk of not being paid or the likelihood of finding unethical people increases beyond the bounds of system integrity. (Whatever that might mean......sounds good though, doesn't it?)
Typically the admin runners would charge a commision or fee in order to make the trading possible, but nothing too onerous because everyone is replaceable, right?
The other thing you can do is issue a credit card backed by your own goods and services, in exchange for others goods and services right now. The miracle of debt, right?
Have some links -
http://wapedia.mobi/en/Barter#2.
http://qa.bartercard.com/
Just think, you too can have your own currency like the Injindollar.
Trade exchanges, IIRC. Which I do.
A very simple idea - barter, but with bookkeeping is what it boils down to. Pretty much anyone with a PC (and power, might be an issue going forward for some of us) can create one. If you don't have a PC you can use paper and pen...old skool I know but due to make a come back.
Add to this credit notation for excess and there is a highly viable mechanism for trading between people. John can swap 1 sheep for Daves 1 cow and get a credit of 2 legs of lamb (or something similar) to be repaid later by Dave. These two legs of lamb would then be a credit note which culd be swapped inside the exchange with anyone who thought Dave was good for it - with the usual financial incentives attached - maybe buying a credit note for two legs of lamb in the future would cost 1 and a half legs of lamb right now to the right person, or maybe more if the future for sheep doesn't look all that rosy.
The only important things are -
1) You need something to trade - your time, expertise, goods, whatnot
2) Reliable people to run the admin.
Point 2 is probably what stops trade exhanges from being the totality of trading in the world, to be honest. (Aside from hired goons and the paper moneymen.) Beyond a certain point the risk of not being paid or the likelihood of finding unethical people increases beyond the bounds of system integrity. (Whatever that might mean......sounds good though, doesn't it?)
Typically the admin runners would charge a commision or fee in order to make the trading possible, but nothing too onerous because everyone is replaceable, right?
The other thing you can do is issue a credit card backed by your own goods and services, in exchange for others goods and services right now. The miracle of debt, right?
Have some links -
http://wapedia.mobi/en/Barter#2.
http://qa.bartercard.com/
Just think, you too can have your own currency like the Injindollar.
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